Guinea-Bissau has recovered its pre-COVID-19 economic momentum, recording real GDP growth of 6.1% in 2021, compared to 1.5% in 2020. Enhanced political stability and government commitment to sound governance and security restoration are opening new economic prospects, particularly through development of the country’s significant mining potential. GDP growth is projected at 4.2% for 2022.
Despite the economy’s structural reliance on agriculture and fisheries, Guinea-Bissau’s sectoral composition reveals that services are the largest source of value creation. The tertiary sector accounted for 52.8% of GDP in 2021—an increase of 0.9 percentage points from 2015. After expanding 6.4% in 2021, the services sector is projected to grow 5.3% in 2022, driven by commerce, transport, and financial services.
Over 2017–2020, Guinea-Bissau maintained among the lowest inflation rates in the Union, consistently below the WAEMU ceiling of 3.0%. However, inflation rose to 3.3% in 2021—a 1.8 percentage point increase from 2020. The upward trend has accelerated, with inflation reaching 7.9% in 2022—exceeding the convergence criterion by 4.9 percentage points and signaling mounting external and commodity price pressures.
Guinea-Bissau’s fiscal position improved in 2021, with the budget deficit narrowing to 5.1% of GDP from 8.8% in 2020, reflecting pandemic relief measures. Further improvement is projected in 2022, with the deficit estimated at 5.4% of GDP—still above the WAEMU convergence criterion of 3.0% but on a consolidation trajectory.
According to IMF estimates, Guinea-Bissau’s public debt-to-GDP ratio remained relatively stable between 2020 and 2021 at 77.7% and 78.8%, respectively. Debt is projected to increase to 80.3% of GDP in 2022 due to adverse global economic conditions and continued financing needs. This elevated debt burden—among the highest in the Union—warrants close fiscal and monetary management.
Economic prospects remain encouraging for Guinea-Bissau, underpinned by the “Terra Ranka” development framework adopted in 2015. The strategic priorities for 2021–2025 are:
Achieve average annual economic growth of 5.4% over 2021–2025:
